Nº 01 · One-pager · behavioral prediction
vol. 26 · apr. · confidential, do not forward
subconscious.ai
Series A · $12M raise
$2.1M ARR · 47 logos
The category

Your customers lie to surveys.
Their behavior doesn't.

"Every company should be integrated with Subconscious." Tooba Durraze, PhD · CEO, Amoeba.ai
Dispatch 01 · the condition

What the surveys keep missing.

Every pricing, packaging and positioning decision in the Fortune 500 runs on stated preference. Focus groups. Interviews. Maxdiff grids.

The machinery costs $80k to $8M a study and moves in 6-to-8 week cycles. Worse, against real-world purchase data, it is 62% accurate. The gap is not a tuning problem; it is the data.

Language is cheap. Behavior is not.

Sources
350 replicated studies · arXiv, 25.11
Nielsen, Kantar, Ipsos list pricing, 26.04
Dispatch 02 · what we do

A causal engine, not a chatbot.

Upload the decision. Synthesize the population. Intervene. The simulator answers in four minutes what a panel answers in six weeks.

Under the hood: a directed acyclic graph, a library of identified estimators, and a set of fine-tuned behavioral agents that have read more transcripts than any one researcher alive. Not a language model. A decision model.

On 350 held-out studies, behavioral match is 93%.

Method
do-calculus over simulator choice graph
5-fold hold-out · 42 journals
Dispatch 03 · why now

Generating is free. Knowing isn't.

AI shipped infinite variants. Ad copy, SKUs, pricing ladders, onboarding flows, positioning lines. An abundance of options, at zero marginal cost.

The constraint moved. It is no longer generation; it is selection. Without a model of revealed behavior, infinite variants are worthless. We built the picker.

One generator on the left. Our chooser on the right.

Traction
$2.1M ARR · 47 logos · 6-mo
Net-retention 148% · mar. 26
Exhibit A · dumbbell Five operational metrics. Grey circle is them. Ink circle is us. fig. 1 · procurement audit · set 26.04
LEGACY US 01 · TIME 6 wk 4 min 02 · COST $85k $499 03 · ACCURACY 62% 93% 04 · FRAUD 46% 0% 05 · ITER / QTR 2 40+
Read as every row a dimension; every line the same story. N = 8 procurement audits · anonymized composite
Shipping with
seven of forty-seven
LinkedIn PwC SpaceX Accenture NRG Energy General Mills Finta
Doctrine stated is a lie · revealed is the signal · we ship the signal
Not a language model · a decision model · a do-calculus engine on 10,000 agents
Ask us to run your next pricing test against the held-out 350 · answer in four minutes